Research Brief
Semper Forward
The Missing Major
There is no front-line supervisor major, no supervisory licensure board, and no national pipeline that returns a trained supervisor after four years. Employers fill roughly 1.6 million of these roles a year by promoting their best individual contributor, and about 60% of those first-time managers underperform or fail within 24 months. A supply of formally trained front-line leaders does exist: roughly 100,000 return to civilian work from the armed forces every year, and the federal government's own occupational matching identifies civilian first-line-supervisor roles as their top fit. This paper sets out why the arbitrage stays open, and why it closes through people rather than software.